Scientists have created a computer model that estimates the entire expanse of the Siberian tundra with a length of 4,000 km.
The warming of the Arctic will lead to the fact that more than 70% of the Siberian tundra area will disappear by the middle of this millennium. According to the authors of the new study, this will happen even with the full implementation of the Paris climate Agreements.
Scientists have created a computer model that estimates the entire expanse of the Siberian tundra with a length of 4,000 km. It takes into account the life cycles of individual trees. As the permafrost cover in the region continues to melt, this will lead to the release of a huge amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Usually they are “sealed” in the ground and if it is released, it will potentially accelerate global warming.
According to the scenario in which carbon emissions will be reduced to zero by 2100, and the global temperature rise will remain below 2 °C, only 32.7% of today’s tundra will remain by 2500. The region will be divided into two mini-tundras: one in Chukotka in the Far East, and the second on the Taimyr Peninsula in the Far North.
Warming in the Arctic in recent decades has progressed about twice as fast as in the rest of the globe. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, between 1960 and 2019, the air temperature in the Arctic region increased by almost 4 °C. This reduced the sea ice cover and also affected the land in the region.